London / Tehran – March 2026 The global oil market has reacted with extreme volatility to the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Brent crude prices rocketed approximately 53% in a single day — the largest one-day percentage increase in decades — reaching $107 per barrel after starting the trading session near $70.
Analysts attribute the massive spike to two intertwined fears:
- Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk — Traders are pricing in the possibility that the new hardline leadership will follow through on repeated threats to close or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20–21% of global seaborne oil passes daily.
- Continuation and Potential Escalation of Conflict — Mojtaba Khamenei is widely viewed as even more uncompromising than his father on Israel, the U.S., and regional proxies. Markets interpret his ascension as a signal that Iran’s confrontational posture — including support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias — will intensify rather than moderate.
The jump has already triggered emergency meetings at the International Energy Agency and among OPEC+ members. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled they are ready to increase output, but analysts warn that any Hormuz disruption could push prices toward $150–200 within days.
